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New Worldwatch Institute study
examines the slow growth of global agricultural populations and the vast
disparity between continents
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The global agricultural population----defined as individuals dependent on agriculture, hunting,
fishing, and forestry for their livelihood----accounted
for over 37 percent of the world's population in 2011, the most recent year
for which data are available. This is a decrease of 12 percent from 1980,
when the world's agricultural and nonagricultural populations were roughly
the same size. Although the agricultural population shrunk as a share of
total population between 1980 and 2011, it grew numerically from 2.2 billion
to 2.6 billion people during this period, writes Worldwatch Senior Fellow
Sophie Wenzlau in the Institute's latest Vital Signs Online trend (www.worldwatch.org).
Between
1980 and 2011, the nonagricultural population grew by a staggering 94
percent, from 2.2 billion to 4.4 billion people----a rate approximately five times greater than that of
agricultural population growth. In both cases, growth was driven by the
massive increase in the world's total population, which more than doubled
between 1961 and 2011, from 3.1 billion to 7 billion people.
It
should be noted that the distinction between these population groups is not
the same as the rural-urban divide. Rural populations are not exclusively
agricultural, nor are urban populations exclusively nonagricultural. The
rural population of Africa in 2011 was 622.8 million, for instance, while the
agricultural population was 520.3 million.
Although
the agricultural population grew worldwide between 1980 and 2011, growth was
restricted to Africa, Asia, and Oceania. During this period, this population
group declined in North, Central, and South America, in the Caribbean, and in
Europe.
In
2011, Africa and Asia accounted for about 95 percent of the world's
agricultural population. In contrast, the agricultural population in the
Americas accounted for a little less than 4 percent. Especially in the United
States, this is the result of the development and use of new and innovative
technologies, as well as the greater use of farm machinery, chemical
fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation systems that require less manual
labor.
Population
trends have varied widely for the world's leading agricultural producers:
China, India, and the United States. Between 1980 and 2011, the economically
active agricultural populations of China and India grew by 33 and 50 percent,
respectively, due to overall population growth. The economically active
agricultural population of the United States, on the other hand, declined by
37 percent as a result of large-scale mechanization, improved crop varieties,
fertilizers, pesticides, and federal subsidies----all of which contributed to economies of scale and
consolidation in U.S. agriculture.
Although
the world's agricultural population grew only marginally in recent decades,
global agricultural output increased dramatically. According to the United
Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global net agricultural
production increased by 112 percent between 1980 and 2011. The world's net
per capita production of agricultural goods increased by 35 percent during
this period, averting food security crises in many places.
Although
productivity gains have enabled farmers to meet the growing demand for food,
the methods used to achieve such gains have come with unintended
consequences, including soil degradation, pollution, greenhouse gas
emissions, and depleted freshwater supplies. Short-term production gains
achieved by overusing chemical pesticides and fertilizers have, as a result,
reduced the sector's long-term resilience to climate change.
The FAO
estimates that the global agricultural population will decline by 0.7 percent
and that the nonagricultural population will grow by 16 percent between 2011
and 2020. The organization also estimates that feeding a population projected
to reach 9.1 billion in 2050 will require raising overall food production by
some 70 percent between 2005/07 and 2050.
"To
address this challenge while promoting resilience to climate change and
avoiding environmental degradation, farmers, governments, and the private
sector could consider investing in agroecological approaches to farming----such as integrated pest management,
no-till farming, cover cropping, and agroforestry," said Sophie Wenzlau,
the trend's author. "Policies encouraging the conversion of land from
biofuels and livestock feed production to food production could also play a
role in sustainably increasing the human food supply."
Further
highlights from the report:
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